You can tell we're in a recession when people stop using the word 'recession' and start being more oblique, referring instead to 'turning the corner' and a 'potential upturn'. High street spending is down, the property market is creaking, and the less said about the stock market the better. Suddenly, recession goes without saying, and the talk turns to when consumers dust off their wallets and plunge headlong into, well, consumption.
For advertisers, this represents an old conundrum: on the one hand, those dormant debit cards need to be roused from their collective slumber. On the other, some finance directors have probably considered installing CCTV in the marketing department to make sure no one gets any big (expensive) ideas. Understandably, the upshot of this is a fairly drastic reduction in ad spending.
This poses two questions: the first and broadest of which concerns what advertisers should do in a recession. The IPA tells us, helpfully, that we should spend our way out - which, of course, it would say. But, whilst the IPA undoubtedly has a responsibility to talk up the industry it represents, to dismiss this as a mere rallying call is unfair. The thing about a recession is its self-fulfilling nature. Sure, there are hard economic factors at work, but among the fundamental issues behind a prolonged slump is consumer confidence. Consumers must be reminded to continue spending. The economy is relying on them to get it back on track, and a mass withdrawal of advertising can only have a negative effect.
The problem for marketers is the absence of money to facilitate this reminder. Even though media owners are revising their charges to reflect the current climate, that big above-the-line push is still beyond the reach of many marketing budgets.
So, the second question, where does this take us? The obvious answer is direct marketing. It's accountable, which pleases the finance directors, and it's retention-focused, which follows the 'marketing in a recession' textbook. The thing is, for many marketers this simply means direct mail and nothing more. With the best will in the world, this will only perform part of the job.
What marketers seem to be missing is the opportunity to punch above their weight with an integrated approach. There is a world of accountable media out there now, and the best campaigns are often greater than the sum of their parts. Digital technology brings opportunities to innovate and, with judicious use of radio, outdoor and even TV, we can achieve astonishing levels of cut-through at a time when many advertisers have left the stage. The value dividend from truly joined-up communications comes in the form of a media multiplier effect, but clearly you have to have something to multiply in the first place.
So the simple answer is that, 'yes, we should spend our way out of recession', but we should spend wisely. If that means a clearer understanding of what clients can expect from a campaign, it may be no bad thing. In fact, this downturn could see a greater demand for accountability, long after we've 'turned the corner'. Embrace that one, and our industry will really have grown up.
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